Insurance regulators in more than a dozen states are now reviewing a fresh stack of 2027 rate requests. The number that keeps recurring is 14 percent. That is the median premium increase 77 marketplace insurers across 16 states and Washington, DC filed for next year, according to a Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker analysis published July 8, 2026. It comes on top of a year, 2026, in which marketplace premiums already climbed sharply after enhanced subsidies expired at the end of 2025. Put the two years together and a marketplace shopper could be facing a cumulative increase of more than a third since 2025, per that same July 8, 2026 KFF analysis.
What insurers actually filed
The filings are preliminary, but the pattern is consistent. Most insurers proposed double digit increases. Twenty of the 77 companies asked for more than 20 percent, per KFF's July 8, 2026 analysis. A handful requested less. None of the filings KFF reviewed proposed a cut.
For context, insurers raised what they charged for 2026 marketplace coverage by 26 percent on average, according to a separate KFF analysis published October 28, 2025. States running their own exchanges saw a smaller jump that year, 17 percent on benchmark silver plans. States relying on healthcare.gov saw benchmark silver premiums climb 30 percent, per that same analysis. The 2027 filings land on top of all of that.
- 77 insurers filed preliminary 2027 rates across 16 states and Washington, DC, per KFF's July 8, 2026 analysis.
- The median proposed increase for 2027 is 14 percent.
- 20 of the 77 insurers requested increases above 20 percent.
- Combined, the 2025 to 2027 increases could top one third, per the same July 8, 2026 analysis.
Why insurers say the numbers keep climbing
Insurers point to two things. First, medical and prescription drug costs. KFF's July 8, 2026 analysis cites an underlying cost trend of 10 percent for 2027, compared with a historical average closer to 8 percent a year. Hospital bills, physician fees, and drug prices, GLP-1 medications among them, are all running hot.
Second, and this part is specific to the ACA marketplace: who is left buying coverage. Insurers attribute roughly 4 percentage points of the increase in both 2026 and 2027 to a sicker risk pool, according to the same KFF analysis. When enhanced premium tax credits expired on December 31, 2025, after Congress did not extend them, the people most likely to drop coverage were healthy enrollees who could least justify paying full price. That leaves a pool of remaining customers who, on average, use more care. Insurers price for that, and they will keep pricing for it as long as the enrollment mix stays sicker than it was in 2025.
A filing is not a rate
Here is the distinction worth holding onto. These numbers are requests, not final prices. Insurers submitted them to state regulators by July 15, 2026, the deadline in most states. Regulators now spend the summer and into fall reviewing each filing, checking it against actuarial justifications, and in many states, cutting it. A 14 percent median request has, in past years, come down some once regulators finish their review. It does not always come down to zero. Some states approve filings close to what insurers first asked for. Nobody should budget off a July filing as though it were a September bill. Final, approved 2027 rates typically post in the fall, ahead of open enrollment.
The review itself varies by state. Some insurance departments post the initial filings for anyone to read and take public comment before deciding. Others run the process closer to a black box, releasing only the final number. Either way, the requested figure and the approved figure are rarely identical, and past filing seasons have produced real gaps between what an insurer asked for in July and what it was allowed to charge by the time open enrollment started.
The cliff above 400 percent of the poverty line
The people with the least room to absorb an increase are not always the ones you would expect. Before the enhanced credits existed, ACA subsidies cut off completely at 400 percent of the federal poverty line. The enhanced credits, in place from 2021 through the end of 2025, removed that cliff and capped what anyone paid at a share of income, no matter how far above the line they earned. When the enhanced credits lapsed, the old cliff came back.
Anyone earning above 400 percent of the poverty line, $62,600 for a single person in 2026, now pays the full, unsubsidized price. A self-employed consultant or an early retiree a few thousand dollars over that line can watch a monthly bill jump by hundreds of dollars, with no tax credit left to soften it. There is no partial help once you cross the line. It is full price, or a plan bought off the marketplace entirely.
What to do before open enrollment
None of the steps below reverse a rate increase. They lower the odds that you pay more than you have to, or that you discover the 400 percent cliff after it is too late to plan your income around it.
- Do not treat this summer's filed rate as your 2027 premium. Wait for your state's final approved rates, which usually post in the fall.
- Check where your income falls relative to 400 percent of the federal poverty line, $62,600 for a single person in 2026. Near that line, small changes in projected income change what you owe.
- Compare deductibles and provider networks against your actual claims history from this year. A higher premium does not automatically buy a better plan.
- Once open enrollment opens, call a navigator or a licensed broker. Comparing new plans against your 2026 premium, not your 2025 one, shows the real change.
- Watch your state insurance department's rate review page. Many post final, approved 2027 rates before open enrollment starts in November.
Final 2027 marketplace rates are not public yet. They depend on state regulators, who can approve, trim, or reject what insurers filed by July 15, 2026. Check your state insurance department's site once its review closes before assuming any number in this piece is what you will actually pay. Questions go through our contact page.